Hopefully, you had a good August and managed to get a much-deserved break. As a financial planner, I feel my main responsibility is to ensure that you don't outlive your savings and that your savings outlive you.
This like most things in life sounds simple, but it’s not easily achievable. When we look at the recent market turmoil, negative interest rates and the reappearance of gold as the be-all and end-all, it makes for a very confusing investment landscape for us all.
To put more flesh on this, only in the last few weeks Bank of Ireland have introduced a negative interest rate of -0.65% p.a. for pension accounts. So we now pay for the privilege of giving banks our funds.
Gold has raised its head again as the saviour to all your long term investing woes. I note the following, to hopefully end that idea:
It is narrowly correct, as the headlines scream, that gold – pushing toward $2,000 – has recently made new all-time highs. Its last all-time high, set in August 2011 at the height of that apocalypse, was $1,850. That is to say, gold has essentially been dead money for nine years.
At the risk of labouring the point, since the day gold hit its high in 2011, the MSCI World Index of equities is up 169.97%, which means your wealth would have grown 2.7 times. How foolish would it have been to sell stocks and buy gold then? And again all we hear is the mantra that this time it’s different?
If we go further back to January 1980, gold traded briefly above $800. Thus it has basically gone up from $800 to $2,000 in 40 years, up 2.5 times. The Consumer Price Index over the same span of time went up 3.95 times. Is this is a valid inflation hedge?
Again not to sound obsessed, since January 1980 the MSCI World Index has grown 4,747.83%. Which means, it’s up 48.4 times vs. gold’s 2.5 times.
Based on the evidence, my belief is that gold as an investment is foolish. But selling stocks to buy gold is beyond foolish; it’s historically insane. By far the greatest long-term inflation hedge ever created by man has been world equities.
“The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them” Peter Lynch famously said. The last six months were all the proof of that truism anyone should ever need. This experience brings home the reality that investor behaviour, not investment performance, is the critical variable in long-term, real-life outcomes.
This time is not different.
Top Listens
Grounded with Louis Theroux - Engaging podcast where Louis chats with various "celebs" over the Lockdown. Well worth a listen.
National Museum of Ireland - Latest Neil Jackman of Arbata Heritage's podcast exploring the amazing work of the national museum. Check out the back catalogue of podcasts on all things Irish history from castles to excavating Glendalough.
If there is anything that you would like to chat around, my Online Diary is available here. We are working via Phone, Zoom or we have the office set up for socially distant meetings - your choice!